Anonymous of Dana and Victory
Hello Followers of the Hot and Bothered Effect.
As has been promised to you, once a month I will have a guest blogger from another blog come and post on the Hot and Bothered Effect so that you can get an appreciation for different writing styles, points of view, and blogs. It will also give other blogs operated by friends of mine to get some exposure for their blogs as well as exposing my readers to blogs that I like. This month's Guest Blogger will be an intentionally anonymous Xavier fan who operates Dana and Victory. His blog gives pre-game and post-game insights on every Xavier basketball game, as well as other pertinent information about all things Xavier Men's hoops. I've included both his pre-game and post-game posts of Xavier's recent handling of the Dayton University Flyers. I realize that this will be the second Guest Blogger on college basketball in the last three months, but March Madness is coming up so it's appropriate. And I read the blogs that I read and this is supposed to be a reflection of that...what's a college basketball fan to do. I promise to mix it up in the future. Here is Dana and Victory:
The Pregamer – Dayton
February 25, 2011 at 1:57 pm | Posted in Uncategorized | 2 CommentsTags: a-10, dayton, pregamer
Xavier (21-6, 12-1 A-10) vs. Dayton (19-9, 8-6 A-10)
University of Dayton Arena – Dayton, Ohio
Sunday, February 27 – 1:00 p.m.
TV: ESPN2.
University of Dayton Arena – Dayton, Ohio
Sunday, February 27 – 1:00 p.m.
TV: ESPN2.
Formidable Opponent
Muskies extended the streak in January.
The Muskies probably earned themselves a little rest on Tuesday night – mollifying the coaching staff with a 100-62 throttling of hapless La Salle. They’ll need it. As is often the case, the shortest road trip of the conference schedule is the most daunting. The Musketeers head to Dayton on Sunday.
On January 15, the Musketeers used clutch free-throw shooting and some big defensive stops to hold off Dayton at the Cintas Center. The 81-76 game was one of the best-played contests in the Atlantic 10 this season. Over the past five weeks, Xavier rode the momentum from that victory to a 12-1 league record, including wins over Temple, Richmond, Duquesne, and Georgia. Dayton’s road has not been as smooth.
The Flyers lost four of their next seven games after the Cintas Center barnburner, basically honking away any chance they had at an A-10 run and putting themselves in a desperate situation vis-à-vis a first-round bye in the conference tournament. But last Saturday’s impressive comeback win over flailing Duquesne has resuscitated UD’s season. At 19-9 and 7-6 in the league, some Flyer fans are starting to talk themselves into the possibility of a late-season push. Still, if Dayton is to accomplish anything other than a defense of their NIT title, they’ll need a win Sunday.
I'm God. Well, not THE God, but A God.
Since 1984, Xavier is 40-16 against the Flyers, and has won 8 out of the last 10 in the rivalry. Even so, Xavier’s recent dominance has not necessarily carried over to UD Arena. Dayton’s 90-65 beating of the Musketeers last year was the worst conference loss X had absorbed in half a decade, and the 71-58 defeat the year before was only slightly less lopsided.
Both of those games followed a similar blueprint – the Flyers came out completely jacked up in front of a rabid home crowd (as far as I can tell, the Xavier game is one of the few that produces a real vintage UD Arena atmosphere) and the Muskies were unprepared for the onslaught. Last year both of Xavier’s big men got in foul trouble early, Dayton shot a ridiculous percentage from the three, and everyone bar Jordan Crawford were looking at their watches four minutes in.
X is unquestionably a better team than Dayton, but they will have to match the Flyers’ intensity to give themselves a chance Sunday.
The HR Department
Sunday’s game will probably be the last Xavier matchup for Chris Wright, a player whose career sums up the growing frustration among UD fans with Brian Gregory’s tenure. Wright was the most hyped prospect to join the Flyers in decades, a local kid with unlimited athleticism and a great attitude. As a freshman, he was everywhere for the Flyers and showed the potential to be a transformative player. To be sure, 12-13 ppg and 8-9 rebounds, plus the odd block, is nothing to sneeze at. However, for a kid that was lauded as a surefire NBA first-round pick upon arrival, Wright’s career has been a bit like running a marathon on a treadmill – a lot of sweat and bluster and nothing really to show for it.
Wright
Gregory’s teams aim to play like those of his mentor, Tom Izzo. The Flyers want to have a squad deep in long, quick, rangy athletes who can defend tenaciously, hit the glass hard, and score lots of points before the opponent can get into their defense. The idea is that with enough athleticism you don’t need polished basketball players necessarily. You hit a couple of threes, get a couple of individual drives, and then do your work on the offensive glass and in transition. Izzo has made this work. Gregory has not.
So this year’s UD team is pretty much an extension of Chris Wright. The Flyers are deep and athletic in the backcourt and on the wings. They hit the glass hard when they’re interested, and they’ve got three guys (Parker, Johnson, and Williams) that can be dangerous from the arc. When their defensive effort is high, they can cause teams fits. But when forced past the 20-second mark of the shotclock, or when teams are able to spread them out defensively, the Flyers struggle to adjust.
Projected Starters:
Juwan Staten (6-0 Fr) PG – 8.8 ppg, 2.3 rpg, 5.8 apg
Chris Johnson (6-6 Jr) SF – 12 ppg, 5.8 rpg
Paul Williams (6-4 Jr) SG – 8.4 ppg, 40% FG, 2.5 rpg
Chris Wright (6-8 Sr) PF – 12.8 ppg, 8.5 rpg, 1.5 bpg
Devin Searcy (6-10 Sr) C – 4.2 ppg, 4.5 rpg
Gregory’s teams as always go way deeper than they should. Backup point guard Parker is a Drake transfer and has no conscience (or reserve) from distance. He can shoot the Flyers in to or out of a game. Matt Kavanaugh has made strides as the latest in a series of plodding UD post guys with a little touch. Josh Benson has the height and quickness to be an effective A-10 4 but is too slight physically to be consistently productive. Luke Fabrizius is supposed to be Dayton’s answer to Brad Redford – a dead-eye three-point shooter with no other real ability – but doesn’t shoot well enough to justify the time he gets. Freshmen Brandon Spearman and Devin Oliver have their moments.
Five Things To Watch
Robinson appears to be cradling the side of the backboard here.
1. Curtain Rises. Xavier has dug themselves massive holes in the opening minutes of the last two games at UD Arena and fell behind by 15 when they played the Flyers in AC last March. X must begin the game by matching Dayton’s intensity and get some control over the crowd.
2. Defense Wins Championships? In the first game between these teams, Xavier and Dayton both averaged over 1.20 points per possession. In terms of efficiency rating, it was the worst defensive performance of the season by either team. This means that the final score will probably be 47-44.
3. Senior (Tales of Yankee Power). Both Jamel McLean and Dante Jackson were slowed by illness this week, and neither played particularly well against Fordham or La Salle. Obviously, the Muskies are going to look to both players to step up in this one.
4. Controlling the Glass. Dayton is the only team in the Atlantic 10 that is clearly better on the glass than the Muskies. UD’s dominance of the offensive glass kept them in the game in Cincinnati. Xavier will have to work hard to match the Flyers’ effort because X’s frontline will be facing a mild athleticism gap. A big game from Jeff Robinson would do wonders.
5. Rest. The Flyers enter this game having had a full week to recover from last Saturday’s home win over Duquesne. Meanwhile, Xavier has played two home games. This is exactly the situation that unfolded last year and Dayton boatraced the Musketeers. An issue to ponder.
D&V-Approved Alumnus
THIS GUY LOVES THE UNIVERSITY OF DAYTON. Man, Jaws, THIS GUY once drank thirty-seven Beast Ices on a porch on Kiefaber and puked all over a campus police car. Classic veteran move – check out that IMPRESSIVE CONE OF SPEW. I CALL HIM THE VOMINATOR.
The Prediction
Lot of intrigue here. Xavier’s in the driver’s seat for a tourney berth, Dayton is grasping to a filament of hope and a win is absolutely essential. The Muskies need this one to secure the league’s regular season title, the Flyers think they can sneak into a bye if they can win out. The Muskies have played great ball on the road over the last month, the Flyers are going to be jacked up in front of a boisterous home crowd. It’s a big matchup.
On a neutral site I have no qualms about taking Xavier to beat the Flyers. But UD Arena is always a hellhole for XU. The Flyers and their fans have had this game circled since Rob Lowery’s ill-timed punch in Atlantic City, and view this as a last chance at a desperately-needed marquee win.
If Dayton shoots their typical percentage from the outside, I think Xavier should be able to win this game. But the Flyers have three guys – Parker, Williams, and Johnson – who can get hot and change the complexion of a game in a hurry. The Flyers also don’t have to go too far out of their comfort zone to craft a game plan meant to take advantage of Xavier’s lack of depth. Look for Juwan Staten to penetrate early and often and for UD to try to get early fouls on McLean and Frease, especially on help defense and weakside rebounding.
On the other hand, Xavier can cause a ton of problems for Dayton on their end of the floor. Searcy and Kavanaugh can’t cover Frease – if he can get the ball. Holloway and Lyons can get around the Dayton guards. The key men for X are going to be Jackson and Robinson. The Muskies need Jeff to produce off the bench, even if he doesn’t score like he did against La Salle. And by virtue of their defensive style, Jackson will get open looks and he will be called upon to make intelligent switches. He’s got to be everywhere.
I envision a tough, low-scoring, hard-fought game. But if the Muskies have proven anything since the Crosstown Shootout, it’s that they love the spotlight, love the challenge, and have the capacity to meet any obstacle. They deserve the benefit of the doubt, even in a tough matchup like this one.
Xavier 61, Dayton 58.
Tu Triumphant. Xavier 66, Dayton 62.
February 27, 2011 at 4:31 pm | Posted in Uncategorized | 6 CommentsTags: a-10, dayton, Recap
HE JUST KEEPS GETTING BETTER.
Last year when Jordan Crawford declared, XU fans were somewhat sanguine about the team’s ability to replace the numbers in the stat sheet. “Well, Tu will get some, Lyons will get double figures, Dante and Jamel and Kenny will have expanded roles, Martin and Redford can chip in some,” etc. But I don’t think anyone really believed that X would be able to replace Crawford’s intangibles — his preternatural calm in the clutch, his ability to manufacture something out of nothing with the game in the balance. Turns out the guy next to him would be stepping into that role as well. And, frankly, we should have seen it coming. After all, it was Holloway that conjured up a last-second foul against Kansas State and drilled three foul shots to tie the game with the clock expired. It was Holloway that stepped to the line again and again to edge Mizzou in his third collegiate game. It was Holloway that found another gear against Pittsburgh. Whatever “it” is, Tu has always had it.
The last two times the Muskies ventured up I-75* they returned on the wrong end of a beating, unable to match UD’s intensity from the opening tip. Not an issue this year. Xavier went on a 14-2 run bracketing the first TV timeout, and frankly could have killed the Flyers off before the break. UD had one two-point basket and no FTs with 2:30 left in the first frame, and it was only Chris Johnson’s perimeter heroics that kept things close.
* In something called the “I-75 Rivalry”, which I’m convinced Jon Sciambi made up at breakfast. I took a quick survey of the Intertrons on Twitter today and no one, X or UD fan alike, has ever called this game that.
This was way more impressive live.
But with their season on the line, Dayton responded early in the second half. The Flyers started the session on a 7-0 run and X really struggled to get their legs underneath them. Chris Mack shifted defenses a few times and had some luck with a swarming 3-2 zone, but X was settling for contested threes and making some dumb turnovers. As the game got tighter, Chris Wright popped up with some big shots, Paul Williams drained a huge three out of the under-4 timeout, and the Flyers drew even at 59 on a pair of Johnson FTs. A boneheaded foul by Josh Benson put Holloway on the line during XU’s next possession, and he duly gave X a lead they wouldn’t lose. X then got a stop down the other end and Holloway buried a three from the left point. The Muskies uncharacteristically mucked up the endgame, McLean bricking a foul shot, a lane violation, a stupid foul and a turnover gave Dayton some hope. Then the Musketeers got the ball in Holloway’s hands and let him ice it. Tu’s stat line was pretty typical of his efforts in conference play: 26 points on 8-17 shooting, 8-9 from the stripe, 6 boards, 5 assists.
Some random bullets:
- Chris Johnson’s lefty jump shot in the first half was exceedingly wet. I love Johnson’s game — but he seems to have a tendency to drift in and out. This afternoon he was fully engaged and he’s a nice player for the Flyers.
- I thought Xavier’s passing and movement in the first half was outstanding. No particular player stood out for me, but it was just a very strong team basketball performance. If the Muskies had any success from behind the arc, they would have run UD out of the gym before the half.
- X’s 3-2 zone completely befuddled Juwan Staten. I don’t think UD got a decent shot off on any of the possessions X went to the zone.
- I thought Xavier’s scouting regarding Chris Wright was amazing. Both McLean and Robinson laid way off him at the circle and completely sold out on the right handed drive. Given that that is Wright’s only real move, he was completely confused. Walked 3-4 times on spin moves, just completely out of his game. With that said, Wright deserves a lot of credit for his second half performance — he knocked down some big jump shots as UD ate into the lead.
- While we’re on the subject of Wright, and now that the game is over I can say this, his posterization of Mark Lyons on that baseline dunk attempt was one of the best blocks I have ever seen. Unlimited athleticism. Apparently a hard worker and good kid, too. The Chris Wright Era has been more fart than poo, but I’m not sure it’s totally his fault. If you’re the Dayton staff, how do you let this kid play four years without teaching him to go to his left or how to operate with his back to the basket?
- Great defensive effort from X all-around. I especially loved seeing Jackson and Robinson buying into the rebounding effort in the first half. They picked up the slack after McLean had to sit with two fouls. In fact, I believe Robinson played almost 15 minutes in the first half and was a constant threat. Against a rangy, wing-centered team like Dayton, having a 6-9 gazelle like Robinson is a huge asset. Jeff finished with 8 points, 6 rebounds, and did not get into a chair-tossing brawl with Tu Holloway at any point during the proceedings.
- Not Kenny’s most productive day, but he mixed it up and definitely got the better of his matchup with Searcy and Benson. I was a little surprised that Gregory kept Matt Kavanaugh bolted to the bench, as he had some success against Frease in the first matchup and has more weight to throw around in the post. Curious.
- Dante Jackson gave the UD Arena crowd one last memory as he went over and gave it large to the Red Scare afterwards. He may have been pelted with a bottle or two for his troubles, I suspect he’ll take it. Dante is 8-2 against UD in his career — with potentially one more matchup to go.
- With the loss, Dayton drops to 7-7 in the Atlantic 10 and a three-way tie for seventh with UMass and St. Bonaventure. UD has the tiebreaker on SBU, so they would be the eighth seed as things stand and would earn a quarterfinal game against the #1 seed, which (if they win one more game) is Xavier. That’s probably a rematch both sides would just as soon skip. We shall see.
- Word on the street is that C.J. Anderson went completely ham during the game and absolutely crushed the Twitterverse into absolute submission.
- Tu already should be a shoo-in for A-10 POY. He ought to be a unanimous pick now.
Xavier vs Dayton
02/27/11 1:00 PM ET at UD Arena (Dayton, OH)
Xavier 66
| Total | 3-point | Rebounds | ||||||||||||
| ## | Player | p | fgm-fga | fgm-fga | ftm-fta | off-def | tot | pf | tp | a | to | blk | stl | min |
| 22 | McLEAN, Jamel | f | 5-6 | 0-0 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 25 |
| 25 | JACKSON, Dante’ | f | 1-5 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 38 |
| 32 | FREASE, Kenny | c | 3-7 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 0-4 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 26 |
| 10 | LYONS, Mark | g | 3-10 | 0-5 | 4-4 | 0-3 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 39 |
| 52 | HOLLOWAY, Tu | g | 8-17 | 2-7 | 8-9 | 0-6 | 6 | 0 | 26 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 40 |
| 15 | TAYLOR, Andrew | - | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 |
| 21 | ROBINSON, Jeff | - | 3-5 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 2-4 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21 |
| TM | TEAM | - | - | - | - | 2-0 | 2 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Totals………….. | - | 23-50 | 3-15 | 17-22 | 9-25 | 34 | 15 | 66 | 12 | 14 | 1 | 2 | 200 | |
| 46.0% | 20.0% | 77.3% | ||||||||||||
| Team summary: | FG | 3FG | FT | |||||||||||
| 1st Half: | 14-29 | 2-10 | 7-9 | |||||||||||
| 48.3% | 20.0% | 77.8% | ||||||||||||
| 2nd Half: | 9-21 | 1-5 | 10-13 | |||||||||||
| 42.9% | 20.0% | 76.9% | ||||||||||||
Dayton 62
| Total | 3-point | Rebounds | ||||||||||||
| ## | Player | p | fgm-fga | fgm-fga | ftm-fta | off-def | tot | pf | tp | a | to | blk | stl | min |
| 04 | JOHNSON, Chris | f | 6-13 | 4-8 | 6-7 | 2-7 | 9 | 0 | 22 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 36 |
| 33 | WRIGHT, Chris | f | 5-15 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 3-2 | 5 | 1 | 11 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 34 |
| 44 | BENSON, Josh | f | 3-5 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 1-0 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 22 |
| 03 | STATEN, Juwan | g | 3-7 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 30 |
| 22 | WILLIAMS, Paul | g | 5-9 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 0-5 | 5 | 5 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 30 |
| 05 | OLIVER, Devin | - | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | PARKER, Josh | - | 1-3 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10 |
| 23 | FABRIZIUS, Luke | - | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 |
| 32 | SPEARMAN, Brandon | - | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| 34 | SEARCY, Devin | - | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 |
| TM | TEAM | - | - | - | - | 2-1 | 3 | - | - | - | 1 | - | - | - |
| Totals………….. | - | 23-56 | 8-19 | 8-11 | 11-20 | 31 | 19 | 62 | 16 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 200 | |
| 41.1% | 42.1% | 72.7% | ||||||||||||
| Team summary: | FG | 3FG | FT | |||||||||||
| 1st Half: | 9-25 | 6-10 | 1-1 | |||||||||||
| 36.0% | 60.0% | 100 % | ||||||||||||
| 2nd Half: | 14-31 | 2-9 | 7-10 | |||||||||||
| 45.2% | 22.2% | 70.0% | ||||||||||||
| Score by Periods | 1st | 2nd | Total | |
| Xavier | 37 | 29 | 66 | Record: (22-6, 13-1 A-10) |
| Dayton | 25 | 37 | 62 | Record: (19-10, 7-7 A-10) |
Technical fouls: Xavier-None. Dayton-None.
Attendance: 13435
